Governor
Polymarket traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Duke City Ledger
Burque Bookie Beta
The spread on every New Mexico race.
These are prices from people betting real money on prediction markets. They're not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction. Markets can be wrong, and a few traders can move a small one.
Updated
Elections
Statewide races
U.S. Senate
Polymarket traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Attorney General
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Secretary of State
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
U.S. House
U.S. House, District 1
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Polymarket traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
U.S. House, District 2
Polymarket traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
U.S. House, District 3
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Polymarket traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
The Legislature
Which party wins the State House
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Ballot questions
Amendment 1: Veto explanations
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Amendment 2: School election dates
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Amendment 3: Choosing university regents
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Amendment 4: Pay for lawmakers
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
State Bond 1: Senior citizen facilities
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
State Bond 2: Library acquisitions
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
State Bond 3: Colleges and special schools
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Game day
UNM Lobos
Football: North Dakota St. vs New Mexico Sat., Oct. 24
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Football: New Mexico vs San Jose St. Sat., Oct. 31
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Football: New Mexico vs Nevada Fri., Nov. 6
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
No Lobos games on the board right now.
New Mexico State Aggies
Football: Jacksonville St. vs New Mexico St. Wed., Oct. 28
Thin market: only a little money is behind this number.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Football: Liberty vs New Mexico St. Sat., Nov. 7
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
No Aggies games on the board right now.
New Mexico United
No United games on the board right now.
Around New Mexico
Does New Mexico pump more crude oil in 2026 than in 2025?
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
Does New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan, the home insurer of last resort, by Aug. 1, 2027?
Not enough trading yet to read.
Kalshi traders' prices, not a poll and not the Ledger's prediction.
What these numbers are
On a prediction market, people buy shares that pay $1 if something happens. A share trading at 95 cents means traders, on balance, give it about a 95% chance. We show the price, rounded, with the candidates' prices scaled to add up to 100%.
We leave a race blank when too little money has changed hands for the price to mean much, and we flag the ones just above that line. Kalshi numbers are the midpoint between what buyers bid and sellers ask. Games show up on their own once Kalshi lists them, usually a week or so out, and drop off once they're played.
For who's on your ballot and what each race decides, see the voter guide.
Beta This is new, and the Ledger is still testing it. If something looks wrong or breaks, report it.